An often good idea is examine other industries and see how technological progress affected them. Around the 70s and 80s there was widespread belief robots/automation would replace human workers and there would be widespread unemployment. In a sense it did (except they're now more commonly referred to as computers) but it also created an even bigger industry to manufacture and maintain these beasts, constant updates, upgrades, staff to transfer data to new technologies and so on... Ultimately it costs us, and companies, more to keep up with this progress but we do it anyway. Especially in North America. It's a strange obsession. You can see on a smaller scale. In the 90s I saw people spend thousands building vhs collections. A few hardy souls spend even more on lasers. Now people are chucking these collections in favor of dvd. And when HD DVD arrives (or some variation thereof) they'll reach into their wallets and do it again. As for the effect on the film industry, I think it's quite likely we'll see a conversion to video projection despite the costs, maintenance and sometimes inferior picture quality. Especially in spite of picture quality. Why? Because it happened before when the industry switched from nitrate film stock. Anyone who has seen original nitrate knows how vibrant it was. Pictures came alive. It was simply marvelous. But the complaints of its flammable nature (mostly an overreaction generated by poor handling) forced its obsolescence. As for production, I think it's far less likely you'll see a conversion. As many filmmakers have pointed out, there's a look to film -- the chemical nature of its process -- that simply can't be duplicated electronically. But only those who can afford to stick with film will do so. Namely Hollywood. The cost difference is a mere fraction of what it costs to hire stars, support the fees of producers and so forth. True there will be some filmmakers such as Lucas who will stand by the new technology, but there will always be filmmakers who insist on a particular look that can only be generated on film. They'll even resort to 16mm and 8mm if the look demands it (i.e. Oliver Stone's use of the various formats in Natural Born Killers). In the music industry there was quite a surge of electronically produced music. Rock musicians had synthesizers that could generate almost any kind of sound. But nowadays you see a larger return to the basics of guitars and drums. It's a sound -- a human feeling if you will -- that simply can't be duplicated by computer. But we certainly see a welcome embrace of electronic distribution through cds. In short, production will stick with the basics that work, but distribution will fully embrace new technology. Getting back to film, it'll be the independents who'll both benefit and suffer from digital. Nowadays you can get a camera for about $5000, tape is about $30 for 40 minutes, and with a Mac and Final Cut Pro you can have edit facilities. The downside is a growing avalanche of amateur productions. Most of it will be inferior and forgettable, and it'll become even more difficult for shiny new talent to stand out from the crowd. The challenge will be the smaller studios that can help secure distribution, but they'll be spending most of their time screening thousands of hours of digitally-shot film, searching for those few gems. They already do that when reading scripts. But at least now they have a finished project to help make their judgments. Perhaps they'll even expect a finished project instead of a script? With all that said, there is still a challenge. We are fast approaching a time when anyone can affordable make there own digital film. But making a "film" is not just about tools and technology. "Narrative film" still needs a narrative; stories people will enjoy, and want to see. Vibrant characters, suspense, comedy, drama, whatever -- no computer or digital process can generate that. Only a talented mind can. But hopefully, will more accessible tools, those talented enough will still be able to shine. dw ---- Online resources for film/TV studies may be found at ScreenSite http://www.tcf.ua.edu/ScreenSite